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The local media yesterday was reporting on a survey conducted by AAA, 495 Express Lanes and Orange Cones No Phones on cell phone use and accidents in constructions zones. I was greeted with the following from WUSA:
According to a 495 Express Lanes and Orange Cones. No Phones survey of 402 law enforcement officers in Northern Virginia from March 21 to March 30, 2012, texting beats out speeding, aggressive driving and not obeying changing traffic patterns in terms of dangerous behavior.
Other media outlets have picked up the same story with the same theme that cell phone use in construction zone is hazardous.
But I have to say this has to be one of the worst ways to collect such data. Why conduct a survey of law enforcement officers to get this type of data? Shouldn’t the local and state police departments have actual records of accidents and their cause? Their data may not be complete as many accidents that do not involve personal injury never merit the attention of the police. But to rely on the memory of selected officers with no real way of measuring how many of the accidents they know about. In addition they may not even know the results of the final investigation as to the cause of the accident seems to be foolish. Many of them may even be just remembering the same horrific accident when they respond to the survey.
I liken this to asking the public what the weather was a on the second Tuesday last month and reporting the results as proof that it rained.
If you want good data go to a reliable source.
The April 30, 2012 issue of Fortune includes an article by Nina Easton titled “Don’t blame the 1% for America’s pay gap.” The piece was published on line by CNN. The primary thesis seem to be an exoneration of the 1% by saying that they are “a group of hard-driving workaholics who tend to have advanced degrees and bring a level of talent and skill to their jobs that attracts premium pay…”
This is just one angle at which to view the problem. What is missing in that analysis is that that the primary question is not how they got to be the 1%, but having reached that point are they claiming too much of the income pie? Are they making too much? Are they greedy? These questions go unanswered as if by being hard working these other questions are irrelevant.
This thesis is then justified by an analysis that is very much one dimensional and therefore very shallow. While claiming to recognize the complexities of the reasons for the growth in income inequality over the last thirty years Nina Easton very much simplifies the situation, presenting incomplete and irrelevant pieces of information. She does this while attempting to convey an aurora of understanding the feelings of the 99%. Her reasoning behind the existence of a pay gap is valid, but the analysis does nothing to look at explaining the size of those differences. In fact it trivializes the income gap that now exist.
She starts by recognizing that measures of income inequality are the largest they have been since 1929. By her admission the 1% control 24% of income in 2007 and has dropped back to 17% in 2009 in the midst of the current recession.
Her first salvo is aimed at the working class where she to notes that “Wages of men without college diplomas, for example, have dropped by a whopping third over the past three decades.” She goes on to argue that “the financial rewards of higher education are a big contributor to the income gap.” Here she uses work by Harvard’s Lawrence Katz who has shown that “even if all the gains of the top 1% were redistributed to the 99%, household incomes would go up by less than half of what they would if everyone had a college degree.”
There are major problems with this approach as the numbers she uses are largely meaningless and not relevant to the situation. She needs to be telling the whole story, not just making a comparison that seem to bolster her arguments.
Men without college diplomas make up a very different group now than they did in 1982. The US Census Bureau has a wealth of data on historical levels of educational attainment. Educational levels have not been stagnate over the last thirty years. In 2011 the Census Bureau reports that 30.4% of people 25 and over had a college degree, while thirty years earlier this number was 17.1 percent. As a result Easton has ended up comparing incomes for very different groups as if they were identical. Those changes cannot be ignored. She has in essence compared the incomes of the lowest 69.6% of those over age 24 in 2011 to the lowest 82.9% of those over age 24 in 1981. An accounting needs to be made for the differing educational levels between 1981 and 2011. Educational levels needed to achieve higher incomes in 1981 are not the same as those needed to achieve higher incomes in 2011.
The second fault Easton and Katz make is in presenting a meaningless number as if it were relevant. A claim that spreading the 24% of income controlled by the the 1% over the 69.6% of those without a college degree should be compared to the extra money that group would make if they had gotten the college degree is absurd. If everyone in the country suddenly obtained a college degree the is no data on what that would do to the income distribution. Their income would not suddenly magically go up by their share of the 24% of gross income or by any other number one chooses to focus on. Someone still needs to do the jobs those people are doing now. There is no indication that anyone is going to pay them more to do the same job.
The fundamental assumption that Easton makes is that the anger is directed at the 1% because they are the 1%. No, rather the anger is focused on size of the income differences. There will always be the 1% and they will always claim a larger share of the income pie. The current 1% may well be the current focus of the anger, but their income levels are the cause of the anger.
Easton goes on to say “Income is not a zero-sum game: The rich aren’t getting wealthier at the expense of the poor.” Income may not be a zero-sum game, but all the “extra” income received by the 1% is not created out of thin air. It is created as goods and services are produced in our economy. A CEO in the 1% may well bring in a extra hundred thousand dollars in income. He could have given that money to those who work for him. Then it could be said he gave the money to the poor. But he may use that money to buy an expensive yacht and thus create a job for someone who would have been unemployed. Here rather than providing for his employees he, by his consumption, provides a job for the someone else to build that yacht. By that logic the CEO took from the poor to give to the poor. But wait a minute. Had he given that same money to his employee that employee might have bought a new dishwasher and created a job for someone who was unemployed. In both cases income is created as goods are produced. But there is a difference in how the money is distributed. In one case the CEO lives in greater luxury while his employees remain poor, in the other some of that money is shared among his employees who otherwise would have all been making less. In both cases additional jobs are created. But where did that extra hundred thousand dollars come from in the first place. Likely the CEO was charging more than he needed to for his products and thus taking money from the poor at the start of the cycle. The economy is not always simply described. Complexities abound. It is easy to make whatever case here the author wants to make, especially when there is not data available to know what actually would happen.
Easton waits until the end of her article to start getting things right. It it very true that the growth of two earner families, especially where both earners have a good education, has contributed to the growing levels of income inequality. The higher divorce rates, and growth in single parent families have also contributed to the trend. It is here where many of the measures of income inequality fail to reflect the true economic situation since by counting either families or households they fail to account for changes over the last 30 years in the structure of families in the United States.
But Easton’s suggestions for working toward solutions are weak and in many cases impractical. She suggests “we should figure out what the 1% is doing right — and apply some of those ideas to closing the gap.” Would she suggest that the 45 year old woman with three kids and a high school education whose husband has abandoned her should have married someone else and gotten that college degree 25 years ago? At that point in her life emulating many of the strategies of the 1% is not very realistic. A problem is not solved by telling someone they should have acted differently 25 year ago.
Not long ago Romney was making the case that women have been disproportionately impacted by the current recession. This week a CNN blog posted an item ” Where have all the women’s jobs gone?” See the more in depth article here. They were making a twofold case it seemed. First the author of the piece, Tami Luhby, was claiming that woman workers have been left “largely in the dust” in the current recovery. Secondly she was making the point that this position crosses party lines when she cited the study by Heather Boushey at the Center for American Progress. The group was characterized as “left-leaning” in the piece. Neither CNN linked back directly to the full original article: ‘Man-covery’ Women Gaining Jobs in Recovery at a Slower Pace than Men. This Center for American Progress report can be seen as something of a follow-up to their report a year ago, Changing Places, Women Continue to Lose Jobs as Economy Grows, which made the case then that women were be hurt disproportionately by the recession.
But what is really going on?
Romney, as I pointed out, made the error of choosing the wrong starting point for his calculations and compounded that error with methods he used for calculating job losses.
CNN makes the error of presentation by mixing number and concepts in their analysis. They have dramatically overstated the actual situation. Romney used counts of jobs while the Center for American Progress used numbers of people with jobs. CNN failed to clarify this difference.
The Center for American Progress failed to look at the total situation. Their focus was so much on the impact of the recession and the recovery on woman that they failed to recognize the actual relative impact of the recession and recovery on women vs. men. The graph below shows the impact by comparing the employment losses of women and men. I choose to use employment counts for those ages 20 and up as that was the data used by the Center for American Progress. I bench-marked both groups using their respective employment levels in January 2008. Thus graph shows the monthly employment levels relative to those levels in January 2008. This date was chosen as it was then that employment was at its peak as the recession began. The CNN claim that woman have been “left in the dust” in the recovery is clearly not supported by the data.
Employment for men declined to about 92.7% of pre-recesssion level, while that for woman declined to 96.0% of pre-recession levels.This differential impact is clearly evident in the graph with the steeper decline in employment for men. Once the employment reached their lowest levels men clearly began to recover more quickly than did the woman. It is this feature of the recovery that has fueled the arguments that woman were more seriously impacted by the recession. Yet even with the slower recovery for the woman the men still remain, as they have throughout the recession with greater employment losses than those suffered by woman.
The recession is not a sex issue despite attempts by some to make it so. A single parent without a job is devastating regardless of if that parent is a man or a woman. A two parent family where one loses a job is a problem regardless of which parent is the job loser. A recent high school or college graduate who cannot get a job has a problem regardless of the sex of the individual.
Perhaps the country would be better served and the political candidates and their respective interest groups would show better understanding of the economy if they would focus on job losses and how to create a more effective recovery instead of focusing on differences between the sexes that are not happening in ways they would like to claim they are.