The government shutdown, the Republicans, and the polls

Most media sources are saying that the Republicans are taking a real beating from the public on the current government shutdown. The Washington Post story utilized the graphic at the right to illustrate the situation. They like many in the media have focused on the disapproval number – telling us how many disagree with either party’s handling of the situation.

But the real story may well be what is happening when we look at the approval numbers. Looking at the graphic the disapproval rates for the Republicans have increased from 63 to 74 percent. That is an increase of 11 percentage points or a 17 percent increase from where they stared two weeks ago. Take a moment to look at it from the other side. What is happening to their support? Each week the Washington Post has repeated the same questions in their survey the weekly results for this question are posted here, here, and here. Looking that he approval number they have gone from an initial approval level of 26 percent to 24 percent last week, and now are down to 21 percent this week. They have lost 5 percentage points on their base – that amount to a loss of 19 percent. At the same time the Democrats have gone from an approval level of 34% at the start of the shutdown to 33% this week. That is a loss of only 3 percent of their base.

The choice of perspective makes all the difference. A disapproval rate of 61 percent for the Democrats looks bad. A disapproval rate of 74 percent for the Republicans looks worst. But when I see that the Republicans have lost 19 percent of their supporters while the Democrats have lost only 3 percent of their supporters it tells a very different story.

What also should be disconcerting for the Republicans, and that does not show up in any of the analysis is what has happened to the “no opinion” group. The actual survey questions allowed not only approval disapproval but also a no opinion answer. The first week the “no opinion” group amounted to about 10 percent of the respondents. In weeks two and three that group declined to approximately 5 percent of the respondents. Apparently the Republicans could not gather any support from those who decide in subsequent weeks that they did now have an opinion. The Democrats did not do much better, but they were not losings support from their base at the same time.